Spain is back at a “high risk” level in terms of the transmission of the coronavirus. According to the latest report from the central Health Ministry. The 14-day cumulative incidence stands (at time of going to print) at 323 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
This is the first time that the figure has broken the 300-barrier since the ministry and the regional governments agreed on a new, more relaxed traffic light system to measure the impact of the pandemic. This sixth wave of the health crisis in Spain comes after a three-month period when the incidence was at a low- or medium-risk level.
The region with the lowest incidence rate is Andalusia at 149. It is at its highest in Navarra at 1,036. On Friday, the Valencian Region reported 682 new cases in 24-hours with an incidence rateof 364 per 100,000.
This is the third time that the 14-day incidence in Spain has passed the 300 mark. During the first wave, in the spring of 2020, the level was not reached due to the very limited testing capacity at the time. During the fourth wave, the incidence reached 235.6, on April 26. The record was set on 29th January of this year, when the data point hit 899 during the third wave.
Other indicators, however, such as hospitalisations, are at a much better level than during previous waves thanks to the widespread vaccination coverage. This means that the global risk, taking into account hospital occupation, is still medium.
With more than 90 percent of the target population in Spain vaccinated, experts still predict that this sixth wave will be far less lethal than the others.
Computer modelling shows that infections will continue to rise for at least a couple of weeks, according to Clara Prats, a researcher in computational biology at the Catalan Polytechnic University (UPC). “Beyond then it’s hard to make predictions,” she admits. The seven-day incidence continues to be considerably higher than half the 14-day indicator, suggesting a clearly rising trend. And this is without counting 6th and 8th December, which were national holidays in Spain and for which cases were not included. The reality of the situation is likely somewhat worse than is being reflected by the Health Ministry reports.