The fourth wave of the coronavirus already has a predicted date, and it is closer than many of us may have thought. Prestigious Spanish scientist, Margarita Del Val, was interviewed this week and made a number of predictions about the summer holidays, the fourth wave of Covid, and when she thinks we can leave our masks at home.
Virologist, immunologist and prominent researcher at the Severo Ochoa Centre for Molecular Biology (CSIC-UAM), Margarita del Val, remarked that the predicted fourth wave will be “as strong as this one and there will be many older people dying.”
Del Val made the prediction in an interview this week with Spanish newspaper 20 Minutos and has revealed that she estimates the fourth wave of coronavirus will hit Spain: “perhaps at the end of March.” She explained “if we have made plans for Easter, we will not change them, we will meet with people, it will continue to be cold and there will be activity indoors” – a dangerous cocktail for the spread of the virus.
The return to normal
Asked about when she thinks we can return to “normal”, the scientist is not very optimistic. This, she explained, is due to the rush by administrations to relax restrictions as soon as they detect stabilization of the data or a downward trend in contagion. “As soon as the curve flattens out, we start to de-escalate,” says Del Val. In contrast to the actions of the Spanish central and regional governments, the scientist gave the example of Australia and New Zealand that both managed to bring their infections to zero by applying strict quarantines and closing borders as soon as a positive case was detected. “The choice we have made as a society has been to live on the edge, despite the fact that there are many deaths”
Summer and beyond
With many people’s hopes pinned on a summer vacation, the virologist is more hopeful. This is because the vaccination campaign will be further along and also with good weather and outdoor activities, “the probability of being infected is ten times less.”
Regarding the obligation to wear a mask, this is closely linked to the progress of the vaccination campaign says Del Val. When the most vulnerable of the population are protected by immunization, it will be possible to reassess what measures need to be taken in terms of wearing masks.